Demographics 2014



3rd Demographic Analysis and Research International Workshop
          11 - 14 June 2014 Lisbon Portugal

3rd Demographics 2014 Workshop

 11 - 14 June 2014 Lisbon, Portugal 

Focusing on Population Health State and Mortality Estimates  
To register please complete the SMTDA registration form  
The rapid improvements last 60 years in science and especially in medicine, biology and the related fields gave rise to better conditions of life leading to a higher life span. Improvement also came in the way we cope with the nature and the natural phenomena. Demography and demographic analysis and research grow rapidly along with the other scientific fields and especially the quantitative branches of mathematics, statistics and more recently the computing methods and techniques. The new methods and techniques along with the classical qualitative aspects of demography tend to straighten the theoretical approaches and lead to various applications in the same or in other scientific fields including social and economic sciences, insurance and finance thus improving the social welfare of the countries. The research now is more interdisciplinary and the aim of the Workshop on Demographics 2014 is to attract people from the academia and practice thus closing the gap between theory and applications. Presentations expressing the state-of-the art will be organised.

The Workshop is organized under the umbrella of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society - ASMDA International, and it is aimed to gather people interested in improving demography and the related fields of analysis and research including life and physical sciences as well as medical and technical information. We strongly support interdisciplinary studies and the improvement of the analytic tools and research methods. Both theoretical and practical submissions are accepted.


Abstract and Paper submissions are welcomed by using this website tools.

Please submit your abstract by February 28, 2014 (NEW)

The deadline for full papers is March 30, 2014


More information at or from the workshop chair:

Christos H Skiadas


Quantitative Methods in Demography Tutorial

Main Topics

1. Human population and mortality data and databases

2. Models and modeling of human mortality, longevity and life expectancy

3. Gompertz, Gompertz-Makeham, Weibull, Brass, Heligman and Pollard, Lee and Carter
4. Stochastic models, First exit time models of Human mortality
5. Methods and tools for fitting models
6. Nonlinear regression, Nonlinear regression pacquages, Nonlinear regression with Excel
7. Life expectancy limits
8. Life expectancy forecasts
9. Human organism deterioration and application in life expectancy
10. Health state of a population: definition, modeling and estimates
11. The health state function
12. Healthy life expectancy estimates from survey data
13. Healthy life expectancy estimates from death and population data
14. Applications and comparisons of healthy life expectancy estimates
15. Longevity, theory and estimates
16. Human Development Stages Estimates

17. Miscellaneous

18. Other demographic analysis and research topics


As for Brazil we have estimated characteristic parameters of Demographic and Health Indicators for the 193 WHO Countries (1990-2000-2009 males and females). You can find your country estimates and compare these findings with the related from other countries. See and download the related files at:

Plenary Speaker

Jean-Marie Robine

Research Director INSERM

Trends and gaps in disability-free life expectancy among European countries

Tutorial: QMDT
Quantitative Methods in Demography Tutorial

Health State Life Tables
Demographic and Human Development Indicators

The Health State Life Table is given in Excel format, PDF and jpg (Picture) and can downloaded below. T
he example presented is for USA males the year 2000. The data are from the Human mortality database. Three methods of introducing data are possible.

1. By inserting both the Death (Dx) and the Population data (Px).

2. By inserting the Mortality data (mx)

3. By inserting the Mortality data (qx)

More information at:

The number of Deaths (dx) for a Population of 100.000 is estimated along with the Survivorship (Lx), the sum Tx=S(Lx) and the Life Expectancy (ex) for all the age period.

In the Health State part of the Table first the Death Distribution (gx) is calculated from dx. Then the characteristic parameter kx is computed along with the maximum value of (kx) and the age at zero health is estimated. It follows the estimation of the Health State (Hx) of the population for every year of age along with the calculation of the Maximum Health State Level. The next step is the calculation of the Total Health State and the Expected Healthy Age.

Five Characteristic Graphs are also included.

Several very important issues are presented and analyzed
in the Tutorial:
1. How to Validate the Estimates for the Loss of Healthy Life Years: Surveys versus Life Data estimates
2. How to Estimate the Health State of a Population
3. How to Estimate the Human Deterioration Stages from Life Table Data
4. How to Estimate the Human Development Age Groups from preadolescence to adolescence, adulthood and middle and old ages

    General Topics
  • Biodemography
  • Environment
  • Human longevity
  • Demographic analysis
  • Demographic economics
  • Education and labour force
  • Linguistic demography
  • Health, mortality and longevity
  • Mortality
  • Mortality models
  • Mortality law and Insurance
  • Fertility
  • Population studies
  • Population geography
  • Population ageing and intergenerational relations
  • Population projection
  • Population reconstruction
  • Population statistics
  • Forecasting, methods and data
  • Replacement migration
  • International migration 
  • Internal migration and urbanization
  • Social surveys
  • General Social Survey
  • National Survey
Life Table Analysis and Life Expectancy Estimates

Special Sessions

Life expectancy
Life expectancy at birth
Modeling life expectancy
Calculating life expectancies
Forecasting life expectancy
Life expectancy variations
Policy uses of life expectancy
Increasing life expectancy
Actuarial Life Tables
Insurance applications

Model Building Sessions
Mortality models
The Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham
The Weibull model
The Strehler and Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging
The Heligman and Pollard model
The Brass model
The Lee and Carter model
Stochastic models
First exit time models
First exit time models and infant mortality
Methods and tools for fitting models
Nonlinear regression
Nonlinear regression pacquages
Nonlinear regression with Excel